As long as it happens outside Igboland, Peter Obi will condemn and politicise any tragedy in a way that undermines either President Tinubu or Waziri Atiku. He condemned the Kaduna Eid drone bombing, but not the Quilox killings in Anambra (until he was called out). He took umbrage at the Mangu massacre in Plateau, but said nothing about the recently discovered tunnel and school where kidnappers hide their victims in Abia. He has now gone to Ibadan to sympathise with them over the recent explosion, but said nothing when Chinasa Philips was revealed as one of the masterminds of kidnapping in Abuja.

And anybody thinking that he is planning a coalition with the PDP is not wise at all. Why? He allows people close to him to release information de-marketing Atiku. The latest is the anti-Atiku remark by Governor Makinde, which was released by Peter Obi’s right-hand person. I am not even sure Governor Makinde was aware they would release it. I have just spoken to a significant figure in Governor Makinde’s administration, and now that Obi’s people have publicised it, they, too, have no choice but to do the same. However, I am more confident that the person who released it did so with Peter Obi’s knowledge. Read the tea leaves.

As long as God keeps all of them and the rest of us alive (tomorrow is promised to nobody), if Peter Obi contests in 2027, he will get fewer votes than he did in the #NigerianElections2023 due to the Yes Daddy Audio. However, he will still get enough to divide the PDP’s vote and ensure President Bola Tinubu is reelected.

And it is not just the leaked Yes Daddy Audio. The behaviour of his core supporters still leaves a sour taste in the mouths of most Nigerians. His base has a very base pattern of conduct. And he is unwilling to call them out.